Dutch university predicts 2050 mobility scenarios
Comments Off on Dutch university predicts 2050 mobility scenariosSource: Fietsberaad
Researchers and experts from TU Delft have presented a new report, Mobility Futures, outlining four potential Dutch mobility scenarios for 2050. The study aims to guide government, industry, and research institutions in making informed decisions about sustainable transportation systems.
Developed by a multidisciplinary team of 18 researchers, known as the Mobilisers, the scenarios provide a strategic framework for addressing the complex challenges associated with mobility. The findings were presented on 16 January 2025, as part of the Technical University of Delft’s 183rd anniversary celebrations.
Mobility as a ‘wicked problem’
The report highlights the intricate trade-offs involved in shaping future mobility systems. Deborah Nas, coordinator of the Mobilisers and professor of Strategic Design for Technology-Based Innovation, described mobility as a “wicked problem”, where solving one issue often creates new challenges.
“When thinking about a better and more sustainable mobility system, complex dilemmas arise in which we inevitably have to compromise on some goals,” says Deborah Nas, the Mobilisers coordinator and professor of Strategic Design for Technology-Based Innovation . “That is why I call mobility a wicked problem: an attempt to tackle one aspect almost always exposes new problems. Our strategic future exploration with the four scenarios helps to make better-informed decisions for the future.”
The four mobility scenarios
The Mobility Futures report categorizes its 2050 mobility projections along two key dimensions:
- The level of government intervention
- Societal attitudes towards technology
Each scenario explores its impact on various aspects of mobility, including active mobility, public transport, automated vehicles, logistics, aviation, and data-driven solutions. Below is a summary of how active mobility (walking, cycling, and micromobility) would evolve under each scenario:
1.Innovation Fast Track (Market-driven, technology-embracing society)
- Rapid adoption of micromobility solutions for both passenger transport and parcel delivery
- Compact urban planning and car-free zones encouraged
- Regulations ensure environmental sustainability and pedestrian-friendly design
2.Hyperconnected Systems (Strong government intervention, technology-embracing society)
- Significant public investment in pedestrian and cycling infrastructure
- Data-driven solutions to enhance safety and optimize travel conditions
- Sustainable transport behaviour promoted through government initiatives
3.Sustainable Slowdown (Strong government intervention, cautious approach to technology)
4.Mobility Patchwork (Minimal government intervention, society sceptical of new technology)
- Cities structured around the 15-minute city concept, prioritizing local travel
- Travel budgets allocated to citizens to limit excessive travel and emissions
- Community-managed shared mobility programs, such as neighbourhood-run bike pools
4.Mobility Patchwork (Minimal government intervention, society sceptical of new technology)
- Uncoordinated and inefficient mobility landscape
- High availability of micromobility options, but unequal access due to lack of government oversight
- Limited efforts to improve infrastructure, with focus only on ensuring basic accessibility
Future implications
The report emphasizes that future mobility strategies must balance innovation, regulation, and accessibility to create efficient, inclusive, and environmentally sustainable transport systems.