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Dutch research forecasts substantial increase in e-bike travel by 2028

207 days ago

3 minutes

Source: CROW-Fietsberaad

Figures published in the biennial Mobility Assessment, drawn up by the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy (KiM) in the Netherlands, indicate a significant rise in e-bike kilometers travelled

In the Mobility Assessment 2023, published on November 14th, KiM analyzes the Netherlands’ mobility figures over the past ten years, and forecasts the development of mobility in the next five years. The bicycle – both traditional and electric – is one of the mobility types assessed in the passenger mobility section. The report categorises the data into several groups, with key findings summarised below.

Kilometers travelled
The number of bicycle kilometers recorded for 2022 is 17.9 billion, representing travel of approximately 1,050 km per person by bicycle, of which approximately 400 km was by e-bike. The distance travelled on regular bicycles has increased by 4 percent since 2021 and on e-bikes by 29 percent.

Numbers of trips
Since 2012, the total share of bicycles in the number of trips has remained the same at 27 percent, but the share of e-bikes has grown from 1 to 7 percent, while that of regular bicycles has fallen from 26 to 20. There were fewer individual trips in 2022 than in 2019, but the distance per trip is greater. The data shows that in 2022, an average e-bike ride was 5.6 kilometers long, and 3.2 kilometers on a regular bicycle. An average ride to education with an e-bike was 7.4 km compared to 2.9 km for the regular bicycle.

Younger e-bike riders
The increase in e-bike riders to education is reflected in the age demographic data. In the 12-24-year-old age bracket, e-bike riders have almost tripled since 2019. Older people also contribute to the cycling-kilometer count; those 60 and over cover more than half of their distance on e-bikes.

Leisure time
Overall, Dutch cyclists cover the most distance for leisure activities. The e-bike is used relatively more often for commuting, shopping and other journeys.

Forecasts for the future
For 2023, KiM expects the data to show that the total number of bicycle kilometers will be 7.5 percent higher than in 2019, and will be twenty percent higher in 2028. The growth is mainly due to e-bikes: the number of bicycle kilometers is expected to more than double by 132 percent compared to 2019. The use of the regular bicycle is expected to decrease by 15 percent and, thanks to the increased uptake of the e-bike, KiM expects that the use of regular bicycles will never again exceed the level of 2019.

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