Increasing amounts of Dutch people are investing in electric bikes to travel to and from their place of work. Researchers at the Knowledge Institute for Mobility Policy (KiM) expect this trend to continue, though it is noted that e-bikes primarily replace traditional bicycles.
Due to the possibility of faster travel with less effort, the number of new electric bicycles has been on the rise since 2018, overtaking the sales of regular touring and city bicycles. In 2021, approximately 52% of the 923,000 new bicycles sold were e-bikes. The number of electric bicycle owners, estimated at 3.6 million in 2021, will continue to grow in the coming years, conclude the KiM researchers in their report on the purchase and use of e-bikes.
More than 1 in 5 Dutch citizens that do not yet own an e-bike plan to purchase one within the next 5 years, including a large group that plans to use the technology for their home-work journey.
With working Dutch people willing, on average, to travel up to half an hour via e-bike, approx. 10km, about 60% of all commutes could be replaced by this transport type. Included in this group are those who would be unable to cycle without electrical assistance, opening up a whole new segment of two-wheeled commuters that can now enjoy active travel.
Due to the growth in e-bike ownership, KiM expects that e-bike use will grow by approximately 45-70% over a period of 5 years, from 2019 to 2024. Part of that growth is at the expense of traditional bicycle use. The total distance traveled by bicycle is expected to increase by 6-8% as a result of an increase in e-bike ownership. This does not take into account other factors influencing use, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, or economic and demographic developments.
The researchers believe – partly on the basis of previous research – that increased e-bike ownership will probably lead to a decrease in car use, but they cannot determine with certainty to what extent.
Previous studies have shown that e-bike owners cycle more and drive less than they would without access to an e-bike. Support schemes for e-bikes exist in a number of countries, but knowledge about the effect of subsidies on active transport is limited. A new study into an Oslo-based e-bike subvention scheme reports on the uptake and use and the accompanying benefits.
To boost the uptake of e-bikes, Oslo City Council introduced a subvention program (€500) for e-bike purchasers in 2016. Applicants disclosed a travel diary, answered a web survey on usage, and downloaded an app to support their activities. The survey results from the trial group were compared with two control groups; an outside sample of individuals and subvention receivers who had not yet purchased the e-bike. Compared to the control groups, the trial group increased cycling activities by 17–22% after subsidized e-bike purchase and a range of 11.6–19.3 km. The subvention led to more cycling activity and it concluded that financial incentives may contribute to a boost in active transport, even when the subvention is of a simplistic kind that does not target specific population segments.
E-bikes have increased in popularity worldwide during the last few decades and represent the fastest-growing segment of the transport system (MacArthur et al., 2014). One aspect of e-bikes that is attracting more and more research interest is their effect on mobility patterns (Peterman et al., 2016). The e-bike has notable results regarding the impact on daily transport modes compared to regular cycling and walking. Distances are increased and even those only considered to be accessible by active transport are considered; traditional cycling barriers are reduced (de Geus and Hendriksen, 2015). The e-bike may also reach population segments that are not prone to regular cycling or walking and particularly important for countries with current low bicycle use. However, the most rapid uptake has occurred in countries with high existing bicycling shares.
A scoping review by Bourne et al. (2020) highlighted that the impact of the e-bike on travel behavior is largely influenced by the primary mode of travel prior to the introduction of the e-bike, largely a shift from traditional bicycles or cars. Physical activity has obvious health benefits and due to the electrical motor assistance, barriers such as long distances and hills become easier to overcome (de Geus and Hendriksen, 2015), and hence facilitate more physical activity in everyday life (Oja et al., 2011). The potential downside of the motor assistance is that it requires less self-generated power (i.e. energy expenditure) for a given time and distance, compared to a non-assisted bicycle. However, the e-bike is found to require physical activity of at least moderate intensity (Bourne et al., 2018)
To boost e-bike sales, various forms of support schemes or incentives have been introduced, driven by a concern for the environment and for public health. Learning about the mode-share effects and changes in the overall cycling of such schemes is of particular interest, as it is an open question whether the motivation to use the e-bike after purchase is the same among subvention receivers as among “normal” e-bike purchasers. This recent study assesses the effect of subsidizing the purchase of e-bikes on users’ daily mobility patterns, and overall bicycle usage. Bicycle usage was measured by two items; how far (in kilometers) were ridden and whether the use was for transport or exercise. The trial group was also asked if (and when) they had bought the e-bike and first put it to use. To match the control group to the trial group they were also posed the question: “If you were to buy a bike today, would you consider an electric bike?” Possible answers were: “Yes, absolutely”; “Yes, maybe”; “I don’t think so”; “Don’t know” and “No, certainly not”.
The app data was collected over a period of two months and the total number of trips recorded was 219,105. The largest difference in car use was between prospective buyers and those who had purchased an e-bike, and some of the higher cycling mode share was due to decreased use of public transport. The study was only designed to look at the relatively short-term effects of the subvention program and some participants had owned their e-bikes for five months. The data indicated that the earliest adopters cycled more than the latecomers, but this could just as well be a result of stronger motivation as of length of ownership. Typically, many people will cycle less or stop cycling completely in the winter months.
The study concluded that financial incentives can contribute to a boost in active transport even when the subvention is simplistic and doesn’t target specific population segments. For subvention receivers participating in the study, the increase in cycling was significant so promoting e-bikes with fiscal incentives seems to work as intended in a Nordic country with relatively low cycling levels.
When we think of electric bicycles, we consider the forward-thinking technology behind this increasing market. A growing number of cyclists are choosing the electric range over more conventional bicycles, but with this choice comes a maintenance cost. However, the expenditure is perhaps not as daunting as we might expect.
The research
According to Multiscope’s E-bike Monitor study among 3,200 Dutch cyclists, the annual maintenance for electric city bicycles and speed pedelecs averages at a mere 41 euros. Only slightly more expensive are the maintenance costs for mountain bikes and hybrid bicycles, averaging at 44 euros. As one might expect, due to their more complex designs, electric folding bicycles, cargo bicycles and tricycles break the 50 euros quota, but only just. This category has a mean annual cost of 54 euros.
Bearing distinct similarities to brands in all markets, maintenance costs varied according to the manufacturers. Focusing on the five largest e-bike brands, Giant’s Electric City Bike range averaged at only 30 euros per annum. Most expensive were Sparta’s range at an average of 56 euros, with Batavus (35 euros), Gazelle (38 euros) and Stella (46 euros) filling the gap.
Good news for bike shops
Multiscope’s study also included data on where the aforementioned maintenance takes place. Nearly two-thirds (66 percent) chose bikes shops for upkeep duties on their electric bicycles, while 14 percent preferred to consult the manufacturers. Owners of electric bicycles and private individuals accounted for 9 percent of this study and in 7 percent of cases, no maintenance was required.
The research showcases the annual value of the Dutch electric bicycle maintenance market, now worth 200 million euros. With this increasingly-popular two-wheeled trend set to continue, bike shops are gearing up for busy schedules and accountable costs.
The nationwide German Bike Monitor 2021 survey, which occurs every two years, has highlighted shifting attitudes towards cargo bikes within the population
The definition for a cargo bike used in the survey is as follows: “The cargo bike is a bicycle that is used to transport loads or people. Depending on the intended use, the basket/box is in the rider’s field of vision or in the rear area of the bike. Depending on the design, these bikes are equipped with two or three wheels.”
From this, participants were quizzed on various aspects of the cargo bike market. The representative survey now estimates over eight million potential cargo bike buyers in Germany alone, with double that figure showing interest in cargo bike-sharing services.
Awareness of cargo models has risen from 38% in 2017 to 63% in 2021, clearly indicating the growing market. Additionally, 2% of the population now use a cargo bike in their lives (1.2 million individuals).
An interesting question, newly added this year, regarded second-hand bikes. The cargo bike garnered the most interest of all bike models in this case. 35% of those interested in a cargo bike would prefer to buy pre-owned; for comparison, this figure falls to 14% when averaged between all bike types.
The final and particularly insightful section of the data explores the arguments against interest in cargo bikes; the reasoning for such disinterest was found to cover a range of issues. At 61 percent, having your own car will remain the most important argument against buying a cargo bike in 2021, this was followed by the bikes being ‘too bulky and unwieldy’ (36%), lack of parking/storage space (29%), skepticism about effectiveness (27%), and finally, the high price tag at 24%.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York, publisher of the global supply chain pressure index (GSCPI), has revealed the impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in its latest release.
The invasion added additional pressure to a global network that was already under strain. Pressure is now at an all-time high since the index’s creation in 1997. The scenario continues to develop as trade and payments with Russia and Belarus rapidly decrease in line with Western bank sanctions. This turn of events is a stark contrast to early 2022 predictions that pressure was beginning to equalise following Covid-19 disruption.
The GSCPI summarises 27 variables that impact global supply chain functioning, including measures such as cross-border and manufacturing costs. A score of 0 indicates that pressure is at an average level, and any positive increase indicates how many standard deviations the index is above average value, and vice versa. The value currently stands at 4.
In the LEV industry, where a product as a whole may be completely dependent on specific, independently sourced parts, this pressure increase could force some manufacturing to a standstill. As the global scenario continues its progression, the impact on the supply chain will be closely observed by many.
The newly published industry association RAI market research report shows only 923,000 bicycles and e-bikes sold in the Netherlands during 2021. In comparison, the 2020 figure stood at 1,098,000, equating to a 15.9% market shrink in 2021. This drop is attributed to current supply chain issues having a direct impact on product availability, triggering the record high drop in sales volume.
Comments Off on Belgian, Dutch and German LEV Markets 2020
The Netherlands
As for electric bicycle sales in the Netherlands, by the 1 June 2020, a total of 149,000 e-bikes had been sold. This is a 12% increase compared to the first five months of 2019. In the month of May alone, around 58,000 electric bicycles have been sold, which is an all-time month record and growth of 38.0% compared to May 2019 according a GfK study commissioned by BOVAG.
In the first nine months of this year a total of 3,754 speed pedelecs (L1e-B) have been sold according to Raivereniging. This represent a growth of around 55.1% compared to 2019 (2,421). At the top of the sales’ charts remains Stromer, who sold most speed pedelecs in the Netherlands both in the first nine months of 2019 and 2020. Gazelle and Riese & Müller came respectively second and third in 2020, switching their 2019 positions.
Belgium
Accurate statistics about electric bicycles sales in Belgium are hardly available. However, there is up to date information on the registration of speed pedelecs (L1e-B) at the Dienst Inschrijving Voertuigen (DIV). A total of 9,636 speed have been registered at the DIV in the first 9 months of 2020. This is a decrease of 3.1% compared to the same period in 2019.
In Belgium there are 2 types of electric mopeds that are allowed on the road: category A with a maximum design speed of 25 km/h and category B with a maximum design speed of 45 km/h.
A total of 416 electric A-mopeds have been registered at the DIV in the first nine months in 2020. This is an increase of 28.0% compared to the same period last year. As for electric B-mopeds, a total of 1,553 were registered as opposed to 3,211 registrations for the same period in 2019, that is 51.6%. This bad result is due to the sudden and unexpected decision to stop subsidies for electric mopeds.
For Belgium and the Netherlands, it is worth noting that the corona lockdown has delayed supplies and therefore also registrations of speed pedelecs and electric mopeds. It remains to be seen whether the backlog will be made up in the rest of the year.
Germany
According to data by the German bicycle industry organization ZIV, around 1.1 million e-bikes have been sold in the first six months of 2020. This represents a growth of just under 16% compared to the same period last year. It is unknown to what extend speed pedelecs are included within this data.
In the case of electric motorcycle registrations, there were a total of 1,045 pieces registered in Germany this year. Compared to the same period in 2019, that is a slight increase of just over 3.5% according data by ACEM.
The lack of market data is a persisting issue in the European LEV-business. LEVA-EU has now started to collect sales information on electric bicycles, speed pedelecs, electric mopeds, motorcycles and quadricycles for the European Union, Switzerland and Norway. Unfortunately, so far, no information is available on e-scooters.
In a first step, LEVA-EU is collecting readily available information from trade press, related associations, etc. Until now, the information available was scattered around many different websites. LEVA-EU has brought all these pieces together in one file, which still has many gaps. But this is only the start of an excercise to be improved and continued.
The following overviews and briefings will be published before the end of the year:
Briefing on EN 15194:2017
Briefing on OBD for electric motorcycles
Briefing on CEN and ISO activities related to electric bikes and electric cargo bikes
To find out more about all information LEVA-EU has to offer and/or about LEVA-EU Membership, please contact Annick Roetynck, tel. +32 475 500 588, email annick@leva-eu.com
