Velobiz digs deeper into recent figures from Germany considering number of accidents in relation to increasing use and age of riders

Source: Velobiz

On the topic of “traffic accidents involving these vehicles”, it turns out, public perception of the dangers of electric bicycles does not match the actual dangers. The publication reports that e-biking is safer than many people believe.

There seems to be a tendency in public perception to highlight the dangers without providing a correct statistical classification. Even the most recent analysis of the pedelec accident figures by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), a technically neutral, factually based and therefore generally sober presentation, cannot avoid using phrasing such as “the number of pedelec accidents involving personal injury has increased more than tenfold compared to 2014” or “overall, the number of pedelec accidents in Germany has risen sharply in recent years”. It seems strange that the absolute number of accident victims is practically never or only inadequately put into relation with the increasing use.

Would it really be so difficult to also include the estimated mileage? At least the ZIV has made this effort in the past. The association has at least put the mileage covered in relation to the number of accident fatalities up to 2020. While an average of around 290 kilometers per citizen per year were covered by bicycle in 2007, this figure had almost doubled by 2020, a temporary peak in bicycle use. The result was that in 2007, a cyclist was killed in an accident for every 46.4 million kilometers cycled. In 2020, this figure had already risen to almost 98 million kilometers. That would be a remarkable improvement in the situation.

Are e-bikes more dangerous than bicycles?

The wording that Destatis uses when comparing fatal e-bike and fatal bicycle accidents is completely clear: “Pedelec accidents involving personal injury are more likely to be fatal than accidents involving bicycles without an auxiliary motor.” 256 people died in traffic accidents involving non-motorized bicycles in 2023. A further 188 people died in traffic on a Pedelec. The total results in a figure that is, firstly, far too high and, secondly, unfortunately in line with the long-term average. In the years from 2007 to 2020, between 354 cyclists (in 2013) and 462 people (in 2009) died on German roads. An obvious conclusion would therefore be that the infrastructure has not improved significantly. But here too, given the increased use of Pedelecs, it would be appropriate to take mileage into account. At least Destatis seems to have put something into perspective, because when they say that “pedelec accidents involving personal injury are more likely to be fatal,” even though the absolute numbers are lower than for non-motorized bicycles, the number of cyclists who died in accidents was obviously related to something. In fact, the number of deaths was put in relation to every 1,000 registered pedelec accidents. The same thing happened with normal bicycles. As a result, 7.9 riders died per 1,000 pedelec accidents in 2023, while 3.6 people per 1,000 bicycle accidents died. But that is different from putting the fatal accidents in relation to mileage or to the number of bicycles and e-bikes.

Older Pedelec riders have always been at the greatest risk of having an accident with their vehicle. The increasing number of accidents involving e-bikes for children is relatively new.

Two years ago, a study by the insurers’ accident researchers (UDV) based the figures on mileage. The result (described as surprising in many media) at the time: e-bikes are no more dangerous than non-motorized bicycles. It was assumed that e-bikes cover distances that are on average 1.8 times longer than traditional bicycles. Whether this figure is still correct today is debatable (the figures came from the study “Mobility in Germany”, 2017). Even a factor of 1.8 changes everything. “The results showed that adult pedelec riders between the ages of 35 and 74 do not have an increased mileage-related accident risk,” the study says. “In contrast, younger (18 to 34 year olds) and older (over 75 year olds) pedelec riders showed an increased mileage-related risk of being involved in or causing an accident,” report the UDV experts.

Age as a risk factor

The age of cyclists and pedelec riders is therefore actually a greater influencing factor than their vehicle. In the case of pedelecs, it is particularly important to note that users are on average older than non-motorized cyclists: “People who were injured or killed on a pedelec were on average 53 years old, which, despite the falling average age, was older than those who had an accident on a non-motorized bicycle, who were on average 42 years old. Older people are more likely to be seriously or fatally injured in a fall than younger people,” says Destatis.

The falling average age of pedelec users is not just a market success for the industry, but is also reflected in the number of accidents, as Destatis also notes: “What is striking in this context is that the number of people who have died in accidents with a pedelec per 1,000 pedelec accidents involving personal injury has fallen significantly in recent years: in 2014 there were 17.4 fatalities per 1,000 pedelec accidents (compared to 7.9 fatalities in 2023). This is also due, among other things, to the falling age of the accident victims.”

Velobiz concludes that, in the future, the bicycle industry’s task will probably be to point out the relationship to mileage much more clearly, to communicate this and then to have these figures ready to hand. The portrayal of the bicycle as a dangerous form of transport is at least misleading. At the same time, no one can accept that over 400 cyclists are killed in accidents every year. Added to this is the suffering of those who survive but are more or less seriously injured in their accidents. These 70,900 accidents on bicycles and a further 23,658 on pedelecs were not even discussed here. Nor was the car, the main cause of these accidents, discussed. Infrastructure remains the key to the long-term success of the bicycle. The UDV also recommended expanding the bicycle infrastructure as a result of its study.