Source: World Trade Organization

The fourth quarter of 2024 saw continued moderate expansion in the global goods trade, according to the latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer. Prospects for trade in 2025 could, however, be affected by possible trade policy shifts.

The Goods Trade Barometer serves as a composite leading indicator for global trade, offering real-time insights into the direction of merchandise trade in relation to recent patterns. When the barometer exceeds a value of 100, it indicates trade volumes are above the expected trend, whereas values below 100 imply that goods trade has either dipped below trend or is likely to do so soon.]

Currently, the barometer index stands at 102.7 (illustrated by the blue line above), which is higher than the quarterly trade volume index (shown by the black line) and surpasses the baseline value of 100. This suggests a steady growth in trade as we approach the fourth quarter. However, the forecast is tempered by increasing economic uncertainty, including potential changes in trade policies.

Most of the barometer’s component indices are either on or above trend, with the exception of the electronic components index, which is at 95.4 and has stabilized below trend. The indices for export orders and raw materials are on trend at 100.5, while air freight (102.9), automotive products (104.0), and container shipping (105.8) are all significantly above trend.

Notably, the container shipping index has seen the most substantial improvement over the past three months, while the air freight index has lost some momentum. Export orders, typically the most reliable predictor among the barometer’s components, are hovering close to the baseline value of 100, indicating a likelihood of steady trade growth in the near future.

The WTO’s latest trade forecast, released on October 10, predicts that trade volume growth for 2024 will be approximately 2.7%, with an anticipated increase to 3.0% in 2025. This updated forecast reflects only slight adjustments at the global level compared to the April predictions, though there were significant regional revisions. Notably, Asian economies experienced a faster-than-expected rise in exports, while North American countries saw a surge in imports during the first half of 2024. In contrast, European trade flows continued to decline in both exports and imports, which has negatively impacted overall global trade growth. The next trade forecast from the WTO is scheduled for release in April 2025.

You can access the complete Goods Trade Barometer at this link.

For more information on the methodology, please refer to the technical note available here.