Predicted growth for UK cycling market in 2025 following decline

Source: Bicycle Association

The UK cycling trade’s association, the Bicycle Association (BA), has forecast a return to growth in the cycling market in 2025, following a slower rate of decline in 2024.

At its annual members conference in Birmingham, England, on March 12, BA members received insights on how the market performed last year, with sales declining by 2% compared to 2023, continuing the post-COVID downturn that began in the latter half of 2021. However, a positive sign emerged as the annual rate of decline eased in 2024, with market performance stabilizing in the second half of the year after a difficult start.

Key findings from the Bicycle Association market report

John Worthington, from the BA’s data and insights team, presented key findings from the organization’s latest 60-page market analysis report:

• Mechanical Bicycle Sales: Volumes fell by 4%, bringing the total estimated market volume down to approximately 1.45 million units in 2024, marking the lowest level in the 21st century.
• E-Bike Market: Despite a 5% decline in sales, largely due to heavy discounting, e-bike volumes reached an estimated 146,000 units, accounting for 9% of total bike sales.
• Children’s Cycling Trends: While cycling participation among children aged 5-16 stabilized at 21% (according to Sport England), it remains 6 percentage points lower than in 2018-2019. Sales of children’s bikes continued to decline, now roughly one-third lower than pre-COVID levels.
• Performance of Enthusiast Bicycles: Higher-end road and mountain bike sales showed year-over-year growth despite the overall market downturn.
• Bike Journeys vs. Bike Sharing: While overall bike journeys dropped below 2019 levels, bike-sharing services saw strong performance.
• PAC and Service Market Performance: Parts, accessories, and clothing (PAC) sales declined by 2% in volume but increased by 3% in value, particularly driven by strong sales in turbo trainers and indoor cycling equipment. Services, including bicycle maintenance and repair, were the strongest-performing segment, with volume and value rising by 7% and 5%, respectively.

UK market outlook for 2025

Despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges, the BA anticipates a gradual market recovery in 2025. Forecasts predict a 2% growth in bike sales, a 3% increase in PAC sales, and a 3% rise in services. However, e-bike sales are expected to decline further by 1%.

Simon Irons, BA’s Data & Insights Director, remarked, “This report is a challenging read. The post-Covid overstocking, and associated heavy discounting levels in the market, persist and our industry still has a real challenge to restore margins and increase value. The continued decline in kids’ cycling participation and kids’ bike sales is particularly concerning, given these are our cyclists of the future.”

BA’s expansion and market data initiatives

The BA’s Market Data Annual Report draws from various sources, including its Market Data Service, which tracks approximately 70% of UK cycling retailers by volume. The full report is freely available to Market Data subscribers, with a summary provided to all BA members.

Additionally, the BA has secured European Commission grant funding to expand its Market Data Service into Germany in collaboration with the German cycling trade association. The funding will also support the development of new software tools to benefit BA members and subscribers.

The full report can be purchased here.