McKinsey to launch mobility forecasting tool

Source: Zag Daily

Global consultancy firm McKinsey is set to launch a mobility forecasting tool, the Mobility Market Model, which utilises a wide range of information to analyse the current mobility landscape and predict how the future landscape may look. Sustainable transport publication Zag Daily has explored the tool ahead of its full release.

How the model works

The Mobility Market Model (M3) uses information from mobility data points in 50 countries, a database of over 6,000 consumer survey responses, and economic, regulatory and technology data.

M3 divides the current modal split over five main transport modes, including private cars, public transport, micromobility, and shared mobility. The effects of population and GDP development on these modes over the last 20 years has been captured, and the resulting forecast is further refined by factoring in the influence of over 100 regulatory announcements at city and national levels from 14 countries, alongside the 6,000 survey responses.

Darius Scurtu, Expert at the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, expanded on the survey and the model to Zag Daily.

“Our long-running global mobility survey directly flows into this new mobility model. Its goal is to look at how consumers might change their mobility behaviour in the future and how this impacts kilometres travelled for each mode of transport.”

Europe expected to move away from car ownership

Generally speaking, higher per-capita GDP is linked to private car ridership. The M3 current global baseline has private cars accounting for 45% of passenger-kilometers; public transport accounts for 32%, and micromobility for 11%. Scurtu says, “higher GDP is typically the strongest impact lever which is also pushing private car sales.”

M3 forecasts that Europe shows the most promise of moving away from the dominance of private cars. The forecast is that by 2035, cars’ modal split will drop 7%, and that micromobility will almost double.

The role of policy

M3 suggests that regulatory policies and measures exert a strong influence on mobility patterns. The model categorises policy tools into one of four types:

• Local rules such as speed and parking limits
• Congestion charges
• Caps on license plate or vehicle registrations
• City-wide car bans

Although no city has, so far, implemented complete car bans, the model demonstrates the impact of measures that have been implemented. Tighter restrictions see the diversity of transport choices increasing.

Western Europe primarily sees cities enforcing local restrictions, plus the use of congestion charge schemes in cities including London and Paris, which have encouraged uptake of public transport.

The role of technology

M3 emphasises that there is a relationship between technology and the changing of behaviour. In short, when technology enables more viable alternatives, the dependency on private cars lessens. For instance, currently in parts of Africa, private car ownership remains low, while ride-hailing – underpinned by technology platforms – is popular and widely available. McKinsey highlights the potential of technology such as digital platforms and autonomous systems to disrupt transport hierarchies, particularly when combined with strong policy support.

The ideal combination

Kersten Heineke, Co-Leader of the McKinsey Center for Future Mobility, describes the three key factors in shaping future mobility: “consumers pull, legislators push and industry provides.” Sustainable mobility needs all three factors to work together.

Paris is an example of this: a winning combination of strong regulation implementation, infrastructure redesign and investment, alongside a variety of incentives, has led to reduced car use and greater active travel.

Scurtu highlights that for micromobility uptake to succeed, cities need to provide the segregated lanes, convenient charging points, and incentives which ultimately allow and encourage people to use car-alternatives with confidence. “What often lacks is more on the regulatory side. Yes, the infrastructure is greatly beneficial but we’ve seen countries like Germany and Belgium provide tax benefits for employer bicycle leasing too. This financial support is crucial for changing behaviour.”

McKinsey takes care to point out that M3 is a forecast – not an indicator of fixed outcomes. However, it believes it provides its clients in the global mobility sector with a clear foundation for planning. Scurtu says, “This data can be tailored to the needs of any client…For shared mobility providers, it can focus on modal splits and value pools. For investors, it can focus on economic incentives.”