Source: Future Transport News

At the recent ATOM Connect 2026 event in Riga, key players in shared micromobility gathered to discuss the sector’s direction, and explore what will define operational success in the future. Discussion topics included regulations, subscription models, and the nature of the industry’s growth, with in-depth insights shared.

A clear theme emerged throughout the event – that the shared mobility industry is entering a different phase, where growth is still taking place but with new parameters for success.

E-bikes are taking an increasingly integral role

After years of domination by e-scooters, research presented by business consultants Frost & Sullivan suggests that e-bikes are becoming the preferred mode in several markets, with stronger unit economics, lower regulatory friction, and a shift in rider behaviour.

Although e-bikes have higher unit costs, their gross profit per unit and average lifespan are superior to e-scooters:

• Average lifetime gross profit per shared scooter: ~$2,073
• Average lifetime gross profit per shared e-bike: ~$4,336
• Average scooter lifespan: ~3 years
• Average e-bike lifespan: ~4 years

Cities are increasingly supporting bike-focused mobility systems, and they are becoming viewed by riders as part of the everyday commuting choice, rather than just fun transportation.

Growth despite stable fleet sizes

Europe’s shared mobility market is seeing continued growth, though fleet sizes have remained relatively stable. This indicates greater efficiency, where operators can generate more value from existing fleets. This is enabled by:

• Better utilisation of existing fleets
• Increased rider adoption
• Improved retention
• Subscription models

Subscription models’ importance

The market is shifting away from per-ride revenue to models with a strong subscription element – a trend which was highlighted both by Frost & Sullivan, and by operators during discussions. Subscription model advantages include:

• Higher retention
• Predictable recurring revenue
• Lower customer acquisition pressure
• Better ride frequency

The role of regulation

Regulation has become one of the key factors to influence operator success, with different cities adopting diverse approaches. Positive examples included the doubling of Oslo’s scooter capacity, and the Netherlands approving road-legal e-scooters. Negative examples included the ban in Prague of shared scooters, and tightening compliance requirements in Italy.

From cities’ point of view, the requirements are for fewer operators, greater accountability, and stronger compliance. Operators that can provide the operational quality, data transparency, safety records and compliance assurance are more likely to succeed.

AI as an operational tool

Operators are now increasingly using AI in daily operations, including:

• Demand forecasting
• Rebalancing optimisation
• Predictive maintenance
• Safety monitoring
• Fraud detection
• Dynamic insurance pricing
• Battery optimisation

Signifiers of success

One Frost & Sullivan slide summarised the key success factors for operators: “The operators still standing in 2026 didn’t win on product – they won on discipline, selectivity, and city relationships.”

Drawing on operators’ stories and research results, the key common patterns were:

• Lean and efficient operations
• Strategic market selection
• Diversified revenue streams
• Strong partnerships
• Data-driven decisions
• Safety and compliance focus