Source: Fietsberaad

Researchers at the University of Wuppertal have developed a new traffic model for the city distinguishing between conventional and electric bicycles to provide insights into the specific impact of e-bikes on urban mobility.

Electric bicycles not only replace conventional bicycles on some trips but also contribute to increased overall cycling, as their electric assistance enables longer journeys, easier travel in hilly areas, and less physically demanding trips. Wuppertal, located in the narrow valley of the Wupper River in Germany, presents a particularly challenging environment for cyclists, with limited cycling infrastructure and many of its sites being located on surrounding slopes. It makes a valuable case study for assessing the effects of e-bike usage.

Model development

The researchers drew on bicycle counts from 13 locations in Wuppertal and modal split data from a 2020 mobility survey, adjusted to account for changes caused by the coronavirus pandemic. They incorporated scientific findings on differences in route resistance for conventional and electric bicycles, including factors such as slopes, intersections, and traffic conditions. The team also accounted for bicycle ownership, noting that e-bike ownership does not always correlate with regular cycling habits due to the higher cost of electric bicycles. Using this data, they adjusted an existing traffic model for Wuppertal to distinguish between the two types of bicycles.

Key findings

The team tested three scenarios:

• Full implementation of planned cycling infrastructure expansions.
• Doubling e-bike ownership through targeted policies.
• A combination of both infrastructure expansion and increased e-bike ownership.

The results indicate that infrastructure expansion increases overall cycling, primarily benefiting regular bicycles, though the effect was smaller than expected.

Increased e-bike ownership led to a significant rise in e-bike modal share, mainly replacing car trips.

The study also highlighted that whether infrastructure expansion and e-bike promotion interact positively depends on the type of infrastructure implemented. For example, building bridges to reduce gradients primarily benefits regular bicycles, limiting additional gains from e-bike adoption. Conversely, reducing mixed traffic conditions benefits both conventional and electric cyclists, generating a positive interaction.

Implications for traffic modeling

The researchers noted that, overall, distinguishing between conventional and electric bicycles did not improve the predictive accuracy of the traffic model compared with treating cycling as a single mode of transport. However, differentiating e-bikes remains valuable for evaluating specific policies aimed at e-bike adoption.

The study’s results were published in August 2025 in the scientific journal European Transport Studies.