Source: Nieuws Fietsberaad

A recent study by Teun Uitdewilligen, researcher at the Institute for Road Safety Research (SWOV), reveals a correlation between rising cycling volumes and increased accident risks in major Dutch cities.

Conducted with extensive data from Amsterdam, Utrecht, Rotterdam, and The Hague, the study finds that higher numbers of cyclists contribute to both objective and perceived risks of accidents. Uitdewilligen presented his findings in his dissertation, “Road Safety of Cyclists in Dutch Cities”, for which he received a doctorate from the University of Twente on November 1.

Rising bicycle accidents

While the number of cyclists in the Netherlands is growing, the increase in cycling accidents contrasts with trends observed in other countries, where a higher volume of cyclists often correlates with improved safety. According to Uitdewilligen, cycling intensity in Dutch cities has reached a point where safety no longer improves as cyclist numbers grow. The study explores how different infrastructural and environmental factors—such as speed limits, the presence of cycle paths, and road design—affect both accident rates and cyclists’ perception of safety.

Key factors contributing to accident risk

Uitdewilligen’s research, which analyzed data on traffic volume and density across various city sections, indicates that the exposure to other traffic, particularly to other cyclists, is a primary factor in accident risk. Notably, the study found that roads with speed limits of 50 km/h that have dedicated cycle paths are safer for cyclists than roads with a 30 km/h limit that mix cyclists with motor vehicles. Additionally, areas with high densities of intersections and commercial zones, such as shopping and dining areas, see an elevated risk of cycling accidents.

Cyclist perceptions and route preferences

The study also examined subjective safety through a survey of 1,329 cyclists in the four cities, who were asked to select routes based on various factors, including traffic volume, type of infrastructure, and travel time. The results highlighted that traffic volume negatively impacts cyclists’ route preferences and their perception of safety, especially among older cyclists and women. Most respondents preferred routes they perceived as safer, with separate cycle paths preferred despite traffic-related concerns.

Traffic density and risk perception

Uitdewilligen’s analysis shows a strong statistical relationship between cyclists’ perception of risk and actual accident risk, particularly where exposure to cyclists and motor vehicles is high. Interestingly, the perception of accident risk tends to rise even more sharply than objective risk in high-density traffic areas, driven largely by the volume of fellow cyclists.

Policy recommendations

The SWOV has released a policy-focused summary of Uitdewilligen’s findings, urging Dutch policymakers to prioritize cyclist safety through dedicated infrastructure investments. Key recommendations include separating cyclists from motor traffic wherever possible and designing cycle paths that can safely accommodate large volumes of cyclists.

By addressing both objective and perceived safety risks through infrastructure improvements, the Netherlands aims to support the continued growth of cycling while mitigating associated safety risks for its urban cyclists.